Water Wars on the Roof of the World: The Brahmaputra Dam Dilemma

China’s $170B dam near Arunachal raises alarms; India plans buffer project to safeguard downstream ecology, security, and hydro potential.

The announcement by China to commence construction on a massive hydropower project on the Yarlung Zangbo River—known downstream in India as the Brahmaputra—has triggered fresh concerns in New Delhi. With a staggering investment of $170 billion, this megaproject is set to be China’s largest infrastructure initiative since the Three Gorges Dam. Strategically located just before the river makes its deep bend into Arunachal Pradesh, the project sits at the confluence of geopolitical anxiety, environmental vulnerability, and strategic foresight.

The new project comprises five cascade hydropower stations spread over a 50-kilometre stretch with a dramatic elevation drop of 2,000 metres. With a projected capacity of 60 GW—triple the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam—the implications are immense. China’s move, while aligned with its broader goals of green energy expansion and economic stimulus, poses existential questions for downstream states, particularly India.

Arunachal Pradesh, already a contested region between the two nations, is the first to feel the immediate consequences. The state’s Chief Minister, Pema Khandu, has expressed grave concerns, labeling the dam as a potential “water bomb.” His warning is not hyperbole. If China chooses to release or divert water unilaterally, massive floods could devastate the Siang belt, home to several indigenous tribes such as the Adi, who depend heavily on the river for sustenance and culture.

Moreover, the absence of transparency regarding the dam’s storage capacity exacerbates India’s strategic dilemma. While around 30% of the Brahmaputra’s volume originates in China, its contribution during lean seasons can be disproportionately impactful. This gives China latent control over water flow, which, in tense geopolitical scenarios, can be weaponized either overtly or as a form of strategic coercion.

Beyond the environmental and humanitarian risks, there’s also a significant threat to India’s own hydropower ambitions. The Northeast region accounts for nearly half of India’s untapped hydropower capacity—roughly 60 GW out of a potential 133 GW—with Arunachal Pradesh holding about 50 GW of that share. Any disruption to the natural flow of the Brahmaputra could derail proposed Indian projects, particularly in Siang.

To counterbalance China’s upstream initiative, India has revived plans for the Upper Siang Multipurpose Project, a massive 11.2 GW storage-based dam. Envisioned as both a hydropower source and a strategic buffer, the dam is intended to mitigate the impact of sudden water surges or diversions from China. If completed, it would become India’s largest hydropower station.

However, the execution of India’s countermeasure has faced significant hurdles. Despite being assigned to NHPC Ltd three years ago, the project remains mired in bureaucratic delays and local opposition. Indigenous communities in the Siang district have raised environmental and livelihood concerns, stalling vital feasibility and geological investigations.

Union Jal Shakti Minister CR Patil recently stated that India is “fully prepared,” emphasizing Prime Minister Modi’s seriousness about the project. But readiness on paper does not equate to readiness on the ground. India must urgently balance ecological sensitivities with strategic imperatives to ensure the long-term stability and security of its northeastern frontier.

As the world grapples with the geopolitics of water, the Brahmaputra stands at the forefront of a new arena of power play. The contest over its flow is not just about electricity or irrigation—it is about sovereignty, survival, and the strategic calculus of two rising Asian giants.